I have loved investing since I read my first Wall Street Journal. I remember my excitement in my early years when the Forbes magazine would arrive. I would read it cover to cover almost before taking a breadth. As I have been in the business, I have dearly loved working with clients and trying to fit an investment plan to meet their investment needs. At times, over the years, I have found that dealing with one crisis or another seemed to call for more courage than I believed I possessed. Gradually I came to understand that the tough spots, in actuality, were how a person gained mental toughness and acquired an ability to go in the opposite direction of the herd, which I have also found is almost always the wisest path to follow. Last week I was taking a long drive with my 26-year old son, and as we drove, we were talking about the subprime crisis and its impact on the economy. It was mostly a conversation about how I thought the economy could handle such a blow and what he thought of what I thought. Then he said something very interesting, "Dad, how could something like this happen?" I responded, "Son, I am ashamed to say that I don't know." I went on to talk about greed and fear and risk and reward, but after a while I grew silent. He said, "Is something bothering you?" I said, "Yes it is, son. I am ashamed of Wall Street." He said, "But dad aren't you a part of Wall Street? For one of the the few times in my life, I found my self saying something that before that moment I don't think I knew. "No, son," I answered, "it has always been my goal -- that our firm could count, so to speak, on Wall Street. But this subprime debacle has left me with a feeling that I have not been able to describe until this moment. I am no part of Wall Street. I am ashamed off Wall Street. I am ashamed of the greed that is epidemic there. I am sick of what I will call Wall Street white lies, where they tell you half the truth, but not the other half. But mostly, I am ashamed of how little regard Wall Street has for the average investor in this country. They truly act like all the money in the world is theirs. I am ashamed of Wall Street and the crazy risks it is now clear they have taken. I am ashamed of the kind of men and women whose exalted sense of their own importance could make them think that slicing and dicing bad loans, at the end of the day, would make them something other than bad loans. Son, that is hubris, that is foolishness, and now we must all pay for their stupidity. Son, you know I believe more in capitalism than almost anyone I know, and to me Wall Street has always stood for free markets and capitalism. But with this subprime mess, it is clear that they are not capitalists at all. They are alchemists. They believe if you rub lead and pig iron together long enough you get gold. No son, I am not Wall Street, thank goodness they never invited me in." If there is any good news in my diatribe, it is that Wall Street types are not what makes the economy of the US great. That is done by corporations large and small who care about their customers and give their shareholders a fair shake. My calling out Wall Street for being something other than what I, and most other people, thought they were does not diminish investors' economic or stock prospects an iota. Indeed, the the egregious greed and foolishness exhibited by Wall Street in recent years can serve us all better by making us realize that all of the noise that they are making about this "can't miss" idea or that one is just noise, or maybe ever better, as sure sign to go the the other direction. I had been planning to write this letter for a week, but didn't know if it was my place, or if this was the right time. I decided to write it after I received an email and a subsequent telephone call from a trusted friend and client, who echoed almost exactly what I had been feeling. I have included his email here it here with his permission. Greg. I'm am rapidly loosing respect for the "geniuses" on Wall Street. Oh hell! I lost it a long time ago. Where have their minds been.? What were they thinking? Don't any of them have an ounce of respect for the economy of the (God help him) average investor? The more I read of this "Subprime mess'" the more it sickens me. Doesn't anybody out there believe that there are consequences to everything we do.? (One of he first lessons I learned in Med School.)Fear and Greed.Fear and Greed! I read of twisted Machiavellian financial dealings and arrangements which I cannot even begin to understand. These men are supposed to be educated and responsible. If they are not all fools they are acting like they are. Even Bernanke does"t seem to be helping. And Washington? Oh boy! If Physicians acted like this we'd all be dead.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
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7 comments:
I really don't know where to put the shame. This time I have a problem putting it all on Wall Street. Granted if we hadn't provided the conduit for banks to unload their mortgages, then the alphabet soup of other products wouldn't have been created. However, if the banks and mortgage brokers hadn't kept on sliding their bar lower for what was acceptable, and creating new types of mortgages, this probably would not have gotten as far away from us as it has...
It is simply too big and complex to lay blame on one group---except humanity. Humanity's inherent greed and fear, and the USA's ability to accentuate the excessively consumptive nature of our species. I am not condemning us, for we all know it lurks in us all. This is why we create governments and organizations to regulate our behaviors and maintain society. It is safe to say that in the last three decades the regulation has gotten progressively lax. This is what creates the cycles of the economy and markets. I can not say I am ashamed of that because it our bread and butter (the cycles of boom/bust, fear/greed). I am sad it got so excessive, so unregulated, and thus so damaging.
I believe that we will be very fortunate if the overall damage is limited to the 20% range for the major markets. However, I am stealing myself for something more attune to the 40% like in the 1970's. Why? Because the size of our problem is nothing remotely close to anything we've seen in last 25 years. Because it really isn't a liquidity problem, but a saturation problem. Because as a saturation problem, the Fed lowering, the government giving credits and checks, won't prompt people to spend. Everyone I know is racheting down their spending. Flattening out any credit lines they have (or trying). Now, some of that is because it is January and that is just what people do in January after their holiday, but if it hasn't changed in a month or two, then I will have witnessed some true behavior change that doesn't bode well for the GDP of the USA.
Paul McCauley of PIMCO has put it the best I have ever heard it when speaking of our great country and the cycle we have always experienced: "We are a country that cycles between two different types of voting structures: $1=1 vote and 1 person=1 vote. We have past the apex of the $1=1 vote cycle and are now moving towards the 1 person= 1 vote" What that means is a more populist agenda and a less capitalistic one. I think is important to cycle between these because the extremes of either are not pretty.
I vaguely remember that some communist guy (Lenin or Stalin) had some famous quote that left to its own devices, pure capitalism will destroy itself. What we are experiencing now is only an affirmation of that.
While we are the single best democracy in the world ever, we have never be purely capitalistic. And that has been the magic of our country's longevity: always trying to find the right balance. While we may not like entitlement programs and government interference, these are the things that sooth the soul that might cause upheaval, social disorder, and revolt.
What I fear is an outcome from this that is overly nationalistic. Closing of our borders, excessive tariffs, denial of foreign investment are all potential problems for our recovery.
I also worry about a financial system that allows corporations to write down/off massive debt, yet has changed the laws to make it extremely difficult for individuals to do likewise. With individual consumption being a foundation to our economic model, there could be large chunks of the population that will be paying off debt for years to come that corporations wrote off as losses long ago...
Greg, I am sorry you've had to have these conversations with your son, but he is at a great age to learn from it and protect himself from future lapses. My kids will not be cognizant this ever happened...too young
I've been thinking about your post since I read it yesterday. I don't think capitalism is the problem. The problem is individual greed. I hope you don't mind a detour into theology, but the problem is not with a system that works according to the rules that God ordained for the universe (such as the laws of economics), but the problem is with fallen human beings. Left to itself, capitalism works. In fact it works so well that it can be tapped to pay for all sorts of government programs that don't work so well. But capitalism suffers from human greed.
A good example of this is the Great Depression. When shoeshine boys are sharing hot tips there is a problem based on greed.
Likewise the problem today is based on human greed. We have a huge number of people who think 20% returns are normal. And if one bank is adopting insane risks but delivering awesome returns, you can be sure the investors in the other banks will be asking what's wrong with their investments. And so there are banks who are offering loans to people who should never have considered buying a house, driven by our greed.
I'm sure you see this in your business. If you are delivering 10% to 12% returns for your clients for the last 10 years, but Invest-o-Greed Corp has delivered 20% for the last 2 years, you will have clients asking what's wrong with your investment advice. And since risk is hard to quantify, it's hard to have an objective answer. You know what the answer is (Invest-o-Greed Corp is taking too many risks) but return on investment is easy to measure, but risk isn't.
So if we are being a responsible INVESTORS, buying shares of solid, well run businesses for the long term, then we have nothing to be ashamed of in the current melt-down. But if we have been greedy and have chased the highest returns without considering the risk or the consequences, then yes we should hang our heads in shame.
I can not say that I disagree with anything that Shawn has added. However, if while tending to your own returns, and not reaching for excess return (which I would say is very much Greg D's model), you get steamrolled because everything else and everyone else got sooooo out of whack...well that is when capitalism doesn't work. Something like; "your rights extend only so far as they do not imfringe upon another's rights"...you know, democracy--which about rights and manifest destiny with limits that maintain a society.
We all have capacity to be/do good and be/do evil, what path we choose and how disciplined we are in following that path is determined by internal factors, but external factors too. I know religious people with no affiliation to a church, or religious place, but for the most part, because there isn't a sense of community in their journey, a shared experience, they are not as strong in their faith. Capitalism, socialism, fascism, or an "ism" for that matter, left to its own devices will become an excessive simply because human nature tends to think "well, if a little was good, a lot must be fantastic!" Teeter-totters do not work with one person... each side relies on the other to maintain the "fun".
I do find it interesting that we are having such deep and contempletive thoughts in what would have been thought of as a classic correction in the past. It speaks of our generally skewed outlook. Things have been so good for so long with the bad being so abreviated that we can not conceive a return to the norm...
I want to put out there for discussion this thought: going forward, could we be entering a time when people eschew debt of all type (credit, home equity, 6 months same as...) because we have taken it to such extremes? And if all that excess is wound in over a period of 3-5 years, where does that put our consumptive economy? ie. If people revert to only spending what they make, or worse, not spending it alllllll, where does that put us? And if it is done abruptly, what sort of shock does that pose to the system?
Always enjoy the read here Greg. Thanks for sharing some of your person with us all.
This question as to how something like the sub prime mess is easy to answer. We have lost our moral compass on Wall Street. How do we pay people like Stan O'Neill millions when he ruins the company. The same for CitiCorp too. The managers get millions for devaluing the companies and We the share holders get screwed. Why was there no one saying I just will not do this? I am a long time investor who is totally disgusted with what has happened.
Wall Street is but a reflection of America. I would say that if the moral compass is broken there, it is everywhere. It isn't just Wall Street firms and banks that pay absurd levels out to CEO's. Shoot, the salaries don't bug me as much as the parachutes. The golden parachutes kick in usually after the CEO has completely screwed up...
In addition, I will say that one of the TOP complaints of clients is "how can I get this proxy paperwork turned off?!" People want to participate in the market's upside, but not in its citiizenry-If you want to own stocks, you must vote, not throw it away like it is junk mail. Just like political voting. People want to live here, complain about things, but do not vote... And when asked, everyone says they vote, but the numbers simply do not play out.
This is what happens when complacency runs rampant...It is not "Wall Street", it is America.
Hey David,
My boss and I are writing a blog on Moody's specifically. Please check it out. You will find it interesting :)
Moody's (the biggest thief of them all) is literally getting away from all culpability by just claiming the first amendment. My boss and I think that if we can change few individual perspectives about what just happened and who is responsible, we would have done our job.
http://blogmichaelray.blogspot.com/
Ana
The wall street banksters belong in jail.
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